How to Decide

MENTAL CONTRASTING Imagining what you want to accomplish and confronting the obstacles that might stand in the way of accomplishing it.

demonstrates the power of negative thinking. Mental contrasting is the process of imagining the obstacles that might lie along the route to your destination.

demonstrates the power of negative thinking. Mental contrasting is the process of imagining the obstacles that might lie along the route to your destination. It’s like using Waze for decision-making.

the temporary discomfort from imagining failure is worth it, because embracing that discomfort makes it more likely that you’ll actually experience success.

PROSPECTIVE HINDSIGHT Imagining yourself at some time in the future, having succeeded or failed at a goal, and looking back at how you arrived at that destination.

STATUS QUO BIAS Our tendency to believe that the way things are today will remain the same in the future.

PREMORTEM Imagining yourself at some time in the future, having failed to achieve a goal, and looking back at how you arrived at that destination.

Pick a goal you have or a specific decision you’re currently considering.

What is a reasonable time period for achieving the goal or having the decision play

What is a reasonable time period for achieving the goal or having the decision play out?

List up to five reasons why this happened because of your decisions and execution.

List up to five reasons why this happened because of things outside of your control.

Premortems help teams solve the groupthink problem by exposing and encouraging different points of view. When you do a premortem as a group, being a good team player means coming up the most creative ways the decision might fail, coming up with reasons that the consensus opinion is wrong.

BACKCASTING Imagining yourself at some time in the future, having succeeded at achieving a goal, and looking back at how you arrived at that destination.

STEPS FOR A PREMORTEM (1) Identify the goal you’re trying to achieve or a specific decision you’re considering. (2) Figure out a reasonable time period for achieving the goal or for the decision to play out. (3) Imagine it’s the day after that period of time and you didn’t achieve the goal, or the decision worked out poorly. Looking back from that imagined point in the future, list up to five reasons why you failed due to your own decisions and actions or those of your team. (4) List up to five reasons why you failed due to things outside your control. (5) If you’re doing this as a team exercise, have each member do steps (3) and (4) independently, prior to a group discussion of reasons. Broadly

STEPS FOR A PREMORTEM (1) Identify the goal you’re trying to achieve or a specific decision you’re considering. (2) Figure out a reasonable time period for achieving the goal or for the decision to play out. (3) Imagine it’s the day after that period of time and you didn’t achieve the goal, or the decision worked out poorly. Looking back from that imagined point in the future, list up to five reasons why you failed due to your own decisions and actions or those of your team. (4) List up to five reasons why you failed due to things outside your control. (5) If you’re doing this as a team exercise, have each member do steps (3) and (4) independently, prior to a group discussion of reasons.

STEPS FOR A BACKCAST (1) Identify the goal you’re trying to achieve or a specific decision you’re considering. (2) Figure out a reasonable time period for achieving the goal or for the decision to play out. (3) Imagine it’s the day after that period of time and you achieved the goal, or the decision worked out well. Looking back from that imagined point in the future, list up to five reasons why you succeeded due to your own decisions and actions or those of your team. (4) List up to five reasons why you succeeded due to things outside of your control. (5) If you’re doing this as a team exercise, have each member do steps (3) and (4) independently, prior to a group discussion of reasons.

good decision process starts with a premortem and anchors there because you naturally live in a backcast.

as accuracy lies in the intersection between the outside view and the inside view, the more accurate view of the future lies in the intersection between a premortem and a backcast.

Just as accuracy lies in the intersection between the outside view and the inside view, the more accurate view of the future lies in the intersection between a premortem and a backcast.