Think Like a Rocket Scientist

“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool.”

From a scientific perspective, opinions present several problems. Opinions are sticky. Once we form an opinion—our own very clever idea—we tend to fall in love with it, particularly when we declare it in public through an actual or a virtual megaphone. To avoid changing our mind, we’ll twist ourselves into positions that even seasoned yogis can’t hold.

As a result, at the outset of their investigation, scientists refrain from stating opinions. Instead, they form what’s called a working hypothesis. The operative word is working. Working means it’s a work in progress. Working means it’s less than final.

Opinions are defended, but working hypotheses are tested.

When we start with a single hypothesis and run with the first idea that pops into mind, it’s much easier for that hypothesis to become our master. It anchors us and blinds us to alternatives sitting in the periphery.

Before announcing a working hypothesis, ask yourself, what are my preconceptions? What do I believe to be true? Also ask, do I really want this particular hypothesis to be true? If so, be careful. Be very careful.

To make sure you don’t fall in love with a single hypothesis, generate several. When you’ve got multiple hypotheses, you reduce your attachment to any one of them and make it more difficult to quickly settle on one.

“The test of a first-rate intelligence,” F. Scott Fitzgerald said, “is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function.”

In focusing on the facts in front of us, we don’t focus enough—or at all—on the missing facts. As the focal facts scream for attention, we must ask, “What am I not seeing? What fact should be present, but is not?”

Our instinct in our personal and professional lives is to prove ourselves right. Every yes makes us feel good. Every yes makes us stick to what we think we know. Every yes gets us a gold star and a hit of dopamine. But every no brings us one step closer to the truth. Every no provides far more information than a yes does. Progress occurs only when we generate negative outcomes by trying to rebut rather than confirm our initial hunch. The point of proving yourself wrong isn’t to feel good. The point is to make sure your spacecraft doesn’t crash, your business doesn’t fall apart, or your health doesn’t break down.

A scientific theory is never proven right. It’s simply not proven wrong. Only when scientists work hard—but fail—to beat the crap out of their own ideas can they begin to develop confidence in those ideas.

“I don’t like that man,” Abraham Lincoln is said to have observed. “I must get to know him better.”

Regularly ask yourself—as Stewart Brand, the founder of the Whole Earth Catalog does—How many things am I dead wrong about?

When Harlan’s critics accused him of flip-flopping, his answer was simple: I’d rather be right than consistent.

When the world around you changes—when the tech bubble bursts or self-driving cars become the norm—the ability to change with the world confers an extraordinary advantage.

If you have trouble challenging your own beliefs, you can pretend they’re someone else’s.

In the end, if we don’t prove ourselves wrong, others will do it for us. If we pretend to have all the answers, our cover will eventually be blown. If we don’t recognize the flaws in our own thinking, those flaws will come to haunt us.

Our goal should be to find what’s right—not to be right.

In the modern world, we live in a perpetual echo chamber. Although technology has torn down some barriers, it has ended up erecting others. We friend people like us on Facebook. We follow people like us on Twitter. We read blogs and newspapers that vibrate on the same political frequency. It’s easy to connect only with our tribe and disconnect from the others.

As our echo chambers get louder and louder, we’re repeatedly bombarded with ideas that reiterate our own. When we see our own ideas mirrored in others, our confidence levels skyrocket. Opposing ideas are nowhere to be seen, so we assume they don’t exist or that those who adopt them must be irrational. As a result, we must consciously step outside our echo chamber. Before making an important decision, ask yourself, “Who will disagree with me?” If you don’t know any people who disagree with you, make a point to find them. Expose yourself to environments where your opinions can be challenged, as uncomfortable and awkward as that might be.