Think Like a Rocket Scientist

“What have you failed at this week?” If Sara didn’t have an answer, her father would be disappointed. To her father, failing to try was far more disappointing than failure itself.

With each success, what would otherwise be considered unacceptable levels of risk became the new norm.

When we succeed, we believe everything went according to plan. We ignore the warning signs and the necessity for change.

As Bill Gates says, success is “a lousy teacher” because it “seduces smart people into thinking they can’t lose.”

The moment we think we’ve made it is the moment we stop learning and growing.

When we’re in the lead, we assume we know the answers, so we don’t listen. When we think we’re destined for greatness, we start blaming others if things don’t go as planned.

We must treat success like a seemingly friendly group of Greeks bearing a big, beautiful gift called a Trojan horse.

Even if you’re a world champion, Greene would caution, you must train like you’re number two.

The modern world doesn’t call for finished products. It calls for works in progress, where perpetual improvement wins the game.

When we succeed, we stop pushing boundaries. Our comfort sets a ceiling, with our frontiers shrinking rather than extending.

When small failures “are not widely identified, discussed, and analyzed, it is very difficult for larger failures to be prevented

Near misses are a rich source of data for a simple reason. They happen far more frequently than accidents. They’re also significantly less costly. By examining near misses, you can gather crucial data without incurring the costs of failure.

The next time you’re tempted to start basking in the glory of your success while admiring the scoreboard, stop and pause for a moment. Ask yourself, What went wrong with this success? What role did luck, opportunity, and privilege play? What can I learn from it? If we don’t ask these questions, luck will eventually run its course, and the near misses will catch up with us.

Asking the same questions and following the same process regardless of what happens is one way of taking the pressure off the outcome and reorienting our focus on what matters the most: the inputs.

Backcasting works backward from a desired outcome. A premortem works backward from an undesired outcome.

Backcasting works backward from a desired outcome. A premortem works backward from an undesired outcome. It forces you to think about what could go wrong before you act.

Painkillers won’t cure our back pain; the source remains

The study found no tangible difference in accident rates between the ABS-equipped cars and the remainder. But one difference was statistically significant: driving behavior. The drivers of the ABS-equipped cars became far more reckless. They tailgated more often. Their turns were sharper. They drove faster. They switched lanes dangerously. They were involved in more near misses. Paradoxically, a measure introduced to boost safety promoted unsafe driving behavior.

This paradox doesn’t mean that we stop fastening our seat belts, buy ancient cars that don’t come with ABS, or take up jaywalking. Instead, pretend the crosswalk isn’t marked, and walk accordingly.

The safety net may be there to catch you if you fall, but you’re better off pretending it doesn’t exist.