Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About The World - And Why Things Are Better Than You Think

We have many instincts that used to be useful thousands of years ago, but we live in a very different world now.

If we sifted every input and analyzed every decision rationally, a normal life would be impossible. We should not cut out all sugar and fat, and we should not ask a surgeon to remove the parts of our brain that deal with emotions. But we need to learn to control our drama intake.

Your most important challenge in developing a fact-based worldview is to realize that most of your firsthand experiences are from Level 4; and that your secondhand experiences are filtered through the mass media, which loves nonrepresentative extraordinary events and shuns normality.

Factfulness is … recognizing when a story talks about a gap, and remembering that this paints a picture of two separate groups, with a gap in between. The reality is often not polarized at all. Usually the majority is right there in the middle, where the gap is supposed to be.

To control the gap instinct, look for the majority.

I never trust data 100 percent, and you never should either.

be careful jumping to any conclusions if the differences

be careful jumping to any conclusions if the differences are smaller than say, roughly, 10 percent.) The big picture is still crystal clear though.

be careful jumping to any conclusions if the differences are smaller than say, roughly, 10 percent.)

good general principle with statistics: be careful jumping to any conclusions if the differences are smaller than say, roughly, 10 percent.)

Factfulness is … recognizing when we get negative news, and remembering that information about bad events is much more likely to reach us.

Factfulness is … recognizing when we get negative news, and remembering that information about bad events is much more likely to reach us. When things are getting better we often don’t hear about them.

Better and bad. Practice distinguishing between a level (e.g., bad) and a direction of change (e.g., better).

Actually, everything you need to survive is lethal in high dosage. Too much stress is bad, but the right amount improves performance. Self-confidence has its optimal dosage. The intake of dramatic news from the rest of the world probably has its optimal dosage too.

The world is extremely unfair, but doubling one’s income, from any starting point, is always life-changing.

The world is extremely unfair, but doubling one’s income, from any starting point, is always life-changing. I use this doubling scale whenever I compare income because that’s how money works.

Factfulness is … recognizing the assumption that a line will just continue straight, and remembering that such lines are rare in reality.

Factfulness is … recognizing the assumption that a line will just continue straight, and remembering that such lines are rare in reality. To control the straight line instinct, remember that curves come in different shapes.

Don’t assume straight lines. Many trends do not follow straight lines but are S-bends, slides, humps, or doubling lines. No child ever kept up the rate of growth it achieved in its first six months, and no parents would expect it to. CHAPTER FOUR THE FEAR INSTINCT

Don’t assume straight lines. Many trends do not follow straight lines but are S-bends, slides, humps, or doubling lines. No child ever kept up the rate of growth it achieved in its first six months, and no parents would expect it to.